Estimation des dates de fin d'épidémie, par pays

Ce site fournit une surveillance prédictive continue des développements du COVID-19, en complément de la surveillance des cas confirmés. Le modèle SIR (sensible infecté-récupéré) est régressé avec les données de différents pays, pour estimer les courbes du cycle de vie de la pandémie et prédire quand elle pourrait se terminer dans les pays respectifs et dans le monde.

Les prévisions sont réajustées quotidiennement avec les dernières données.

 
Singapore
End 97% around May 10, 100% around June 19

 

United States
End 97% around May 16, 100% around September 13

 

Brazil
End 97% around June 6, 100% around September 6

 

Canada
End 97% around May 23, 100% around August 24

 

Russia
End 97% around May 23; End 100% around August 4

 

India
End 97% around May 26, End 100% aound August 6

 

Italy
End 97% around May 17, 100% aournd October 10

 

France
End 97% around May 6; End 100% August 09

 

United Kingdom
End 97% around May 18; End 100% around August 24

 

Germany
End 97% around May 4; 100% aound August 7

 

Spain
End 97% around May 2, End 100% around August 2

 

Netherlands
End 97% around May 19, 100% around August 20

 

Switzerland
End 99% around May 9, 100% around July 7

 

Sweden
End 97% around June 13, 100% around October 9

 

Poland
End 97% around May 31, 100% around September 1

 

Mexico
Turn around May 4, End 97% around June 12

 

Cuba
End 97% around May 23, 100% around July 10

 

Chile
End 97% around June 17, 100% around October 13

 

Turkey
End 97% around May 16; End 100% around August 8

 

United Arab Emirates
End 97% around June 5, 100% aournd August 29

 

Saudi Arabia
End 97% around May 30, 100% around August 20

 

Qatar
Turn around May 24; End 97% around July 23

 

Austria
End 100% around June 13

 

Indonesia
End 97% around June 4; End 100% September 1

 

Malaysia
End 97% around May 6; End 100% around July 08

 

Serbia
End 97% around May 21, 100% around August 5

 

Bangladesh
End 97% around May 14; End 100% around June 20 

 

World
End 97% around May 30, 100% around December 2

Source